Will China Double-Cross Russia?
The invasion by Russia of a neighboring country on their western borders once nearly led to all-out war on their eastern borders with China. Could history repeat itself?
When Vladimir Putin first ordered the invasion of Ukraine, conventional wisdom said that China may use the confusion as the perfect pretext to invade Taiwan and Chinese incursions into Taiwanese airspace gave little reason to believe the conventional wisdom was wrong. However, as Putin's military campaign failed to provide a blitzkrieg victory and has ground down to what looks like an unwinnable quagmire - China must be having second thoughts about what the strategic opportunity may hold for them.
Just the rumors that Russia has asked China for military assistance was enough to help cause the biggest plunge in Chinese stocks since 2008. Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist leaders have witnessed how the West has coalesced in anger over the invasion of Ukraine and what the resultant sanctions are doing to the economy of Russia. They must not want any part of that.
Even though China and Russia are nominal allies - Russia waited until after the Beijing Olympics to begin their "special military operations" at the request of the CCP - the two countries also have a rocky history. For most of 1969 the two countries engaged in an undeclared military conflict over border disputes. The disputes almost resulted in an all-out war between the two nations.
One of the key elements of the escalation of tensions between the Soviet Union and China was the invasion of Czechoslovakia in August of 1968 and the proclamation of the Brezhnev Doctrine which claimed the Soviet right to overthrow any communist government that was diverging from what was desired by the Kremlin. Sound familiar?
The escalation of tensions and threat of all-out war died down but it also created an opening for the West and in 1971 Henry Kissinger began his famous Ping Pong Diplomacy. This of course resulted in President Richard Nixon's historic visit to China to meet with Mao Zedong in 1972.
Today with the Russian economy on the verge of collapse, with the very ability of the average Russian citizen to feed themselves and their families, ant-war and anti-Putin sentiment is running high. The combined effects of military failure and the sanctions are unsustainable for Putin and Russia. Something has to give. Xi Jinping must see this and wonder if a failed invasion of Taiwan would have similar repercussions and results for him.
The CCP would be delusional not to think the same thing couldn't happen to them. Remember that recently a border skirmish between out numbered and out gunned Indian soldiers not only repelled Chinese forces but had them running away. I think any dreams of a blitzkrieg invasion of Taiwan have been filed away perhaps for another day.
Seeing what the rumors of military assistance did to Chinese stocks yesterday don't be surprised if Xi Jinping makes an announcement that those rumors of military assistance are absolutely false and that China just wants to help end this needless bloodshed as mediator if that would help. It is clear that China cannot outwardly be tied to Russia in any way outside of buying up all the oil and gas they can - the Chinese economy doesn't run on windmills and rainbows after all.
With all the above said - don't rule out an outright double cross by China. With increasing unrest and civil strife almost guaranteed in Russia - Vladimir Putin's hold on power may become more uncertain and that would become Putin's main focus. If that's the case perhaps China could view this as a good time to settle some old scores and invade those disputed border areas with Russia. Putin would be hard pressed to militarily deal with two fronts especially with one front going so poorly and with the other against a foe with even more manpower and military might. Even if a negotiated peace with Ukraine cedes the disputed border areas - Russia could ended up losing just as much land to China in the East.
It is doubtful the West would interfere in such a situation. The media has drummed up so much anti-Russian hate that China could even claim the white hat in such a military operation.
And speaking of media - if such a double-cross by China came to be it would be interesting how the Russian media would portray it. The Russian "special operations" were supposedly to fight "fascists" and "Nazis" in Ukraine. How then would the media explain the actions of their Communist Chinese brothers using the same reasoning for their own "special operations" against Russia?
If this does come to pass - Vladimir Putin would have learned an important lesson: "Don't trust China - China is asshole!"